Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 28.968188 32.191174 35.872831 40.448919 46.071353 52.876633 61.939609
2025-06-15 24.159617 28.163669 33.139279 39.977264 49.490845 62.906876 84.714859
2025-06-22 21.095656 25.450918 31.211080 39.782439 53.051977 74.706102 118.630967
2025-06-29 18.731294 23.158957 29.287868 38.983270 55.373422 85.910051 164.349761
2025-07-06 17.681059 22.429610 29.331633 41.026431 62.999732 111.865555 297.616029
2025-07-13 16.279961 20.985897 28.041458 40.552337 65.874381 130.580052 499.929808
2025-07-20 15.288507 20.005873 27.290017 40.794952 70.312147 158.726500 1151.406205
2025-07-27 14.482234 19.203778 26.689193 41.150008 75.207486 196.495180 6584.388239
2025-08-03 13.710596 18.370881 25.915559 40.988028 78.827261 237.969596 NaN
2025-08-10 12.997085 17.561704 25.078550 40.520186 81.491578 283.986574 NaN
2025-08-17 12.459842 16.986987 24.579847 40.661926 86.114791 363.109426 NaN
2025-08-24 11.927733 16.376944 23.948792 40.389992 89.408758 456.020459 NaN
2025-08-31 11.413308 15.769066 23.278949 39.957173 92.242423 581.150721 NaN
2025-09-07 10.947960 15.212864 22.654533 39.532320 95.069525 765.068400 NaN
2025-09-14 10.554264 14.752000 22.167305 39.359412 98.980093 1109.073996 NaN
2025-09-21 10.128967 14.211455 21.481339 38.582869 100.046435 1488.737562 NaN
2025-09-28 10.027943 14.220728 21.858760 40.595759 115.645786 8455.622520 NaN
2025-10-05 9.690178 13.795516 21.337216 40.132082 118.719305 74734.748417 NaN
2025-10-12 9.443038 13.516092 21.085716 40.371707 126.207086 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.222718 13.271609 20.884269 40.721276 135.076369 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.974550 12.963970 20.527641 40.562341 140.780186 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.718439 12.629842 20.091865 40.102574 144.195274 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.525446 12.401449 19.863459 40.241983 152.783494 NaN NaN